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Improving Legal Case Outcomes with @RISK and PrecisionTree, Part I
In litigation, you often get stuck in inefficient negotiations. Between 95-97% of patent lawsuits settle before trial, but not before amassing an average of more than $2 million in expenses, according James C. Yoon, partner at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati. If a long negotiation is disadvantageous for both parties, why does it take so long to reach settlement?
Risk Represents a Range of Possible Outcomes for Business Continuity and Disaster Response
Business continuity and emergency response managers know that recovering from a crisis requires proactive planning – regardless of whether you can see trouble approaching. Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic have taught us to expect the unexpected. So called “black swan” events, dubbed such because they are supposed to be rare, are not as unusual as the moniker suggests.
Dell Technologies Used Palisade’s Predictive Analytics Tools to Optimize Global Supply Chain
Long supply chains for technology companies in the United States combined with the need for timely delivery of products to customers has brought challenges to planning. The global pandemic added even more complexity to meet demand for timely delivery. Dell Technologies adopted a hybrid replenishment strategy using both ocean and air shipping to ensure inventory and service levels while reducing logistics costs. The supply chain strategy team evaluated the static initial inventory policy to identify an optimal solution that would minimize total fulfillment cost.
Why Use Decision Tree Analysis – Part II
This is a continuation of Part I in this series on Decision Tree Analysis.
Life is full of tough choices. Most of us muddle through them using best guesses and gut feelings. But have you ever wondered if there might be a more sophisticated way to make decisions? Many businesses, researchers, and organizations have asked the same question, ...
Why Use Decision Tree Analysis – Part I
Conducting analysis of decision making under uncertainty using decision trees serves several purposes. This can be done easily in Excel spreadsheets with PrecisionTree software.
First, a decision tree is a visual representation of a decision situation (and hence aids communication).
Second, the branches of a tree explicitly show all ...
Using @RISK and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for Valuing a Portfolio of Natural Gas Futures
The use of custom Excel programming and @RISK APIs allows the automated analysis of historical data and construction of sophisticated risk models. Here, we present an application in the energy sector as an example.
As part of its Custom Development services, Palisade developed an add-in that automates the construction of a risk analysis ...
Monte Carlo Simulation Provides Insights to Manage Risks
Our CEO, Randy Heffernan, was featured in the May 2021 issue of Risk Management Magazine. In this article he shared, in part:
Monte Carlo simulation performs risk analysis by building models of possible results by substituting a range of values—a probability distribution—for any factor that has inherent uncertainty. It then calculates ...
As A Metric, ‘Average’ Can Be A Dangerous Number
Utilizing a software called @RISK, developed by Palisade, we evaluated the NASA bearing data to determine the best-fit distribution. It turns out that for the bearing data, the lognormal distribution is the best fit.
Click here to read the article.
Expect the Unexpected with Black Swans
While risk modeling to shape strategic positioning and responses has always been important, this past year has broadened the awareness of the need to evaluate risk. Technology to support risk management needs to be adaptable and accessible.
Click here to read the article.
PrecisionTree Informs AACE International Recommended Practice
Palisade’s PrecisionTree is used help decision makers choose between multiple options and take account of cost and rewards of different options, such as choosing the highest versus the lowest bid. It allows you to visually map out, organize, and analyze decisions using decision trees, right in Microsoft Excel.
This analysis is ...
Students at Cornell’s Dyson School use @RISK to Evaluate Capital Budgeting, Investments, Random Walks, Derivatives Pricing, and Real Options
Calum Turvey, W.I. Myers Professor of Agricultural Finance, uses @RISK in his Risk Simulation and Optimization course. Offered by the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University, Risk Simulation and Optimization attracts over 50 students per semester. @RISK is used to evaluate problems of finance, ...
Why risk is a range — not a number
The basis of a solid risk assessment is understanding that probability exists in a range, not a specific number, says Henry Yennie, a program manager at the Louisiana Department of Health. … “I think it’s educating the leadership that has to evaluate risk,” said Yennie, who’s been using @RISK since Hurricane Katrina devastated the state in ...