Official blog of Palisade. Tips on making better decisions with analytics, news about the risk and decision analysis field, and updates from Palisade.
Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Hedge Against Volatile Oil Prices
January 2, 2023
The escalation of Russian’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to crude oil price volatility and a surge to over $130 a barrel in the spring of 2022. These high price levels, which have not been seen since 2008, occurred just two years after hitting an all-time low early in the pandemic and going ...
Announcing ScheduleRiskAnalysis for the DecisionTools Suite!
November 11, 2022
Manage uncertainty in project schedules like never before with Monte Carlo simulation. Perform risk analysis on Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project models in the @RISK for Excel environment. Answer questions like “Will this project finish on time?” or “Will we be within budget?”.
The 2022 FIFA World Cup is right around the corner and the tournament predictions are pouring in. While checking team rankings and relying on gut instinct might be the classic approach to choosing your champion, risk analysis software is changing the game by helping to quantitatively predict match outcomes.
“The outcomes of many decisions ...
A Purchasing Strategy Example
Palisade’s PrecisionTree software allows you to analyze the probabilities of different outcomes, and their impacts, in sequential, multi-stage decisions. The decision trees in PrecisionTree show the probabilities of these outcomes assuming that the optimal decisions are made at each of the decision nodes ...
Identifying Profitable Housing Development Opportunities with Risk Analysis
August 8, 2022
Real estate investment opportunities come in all shapes and sizes – from new developments that traditionally provide reliable, predictable income, to troubled properties that could have significant financial potential if developed and managed properly. The key to success with these opportunities – particularly when dealing with dilapidated ...
Many who have been exposed to Monte Carlo simulation learned about it in the context of financial modeling such as asset management, cash flow analysis, or actuarial study. And that’s with good reason: The applications of Monte Carlo simulation for giving valuable insights into areas of financial uncertainty are limitless.
Improving Legal Case Outcomes with @RISK and PrecisionTree, Part IV
June 9, 2022
A common first step in litigation strategy is to calculate the case’s settlement value. As discussed in our past legal blog series, settlement calculations can quickly become inundated with countless variables and uncertainties. These legal uncertainties raise questions about estimating damages, a crucial step in the value calculation.
Improving Legal Case Outcomes with @RISK and PrecisionTree, Part III
June 7, 2022
Previously we discussed the importance of crafting decision trees in litigation strategy and why patent litigation is an expensive, time-consuming process. In part three, we will be focusing on how to leverage Palisade’s @RISK software to overcome decision analysis challenges and calculate probabilities of all possible scenarios occurring to determine fair market value of intellectual property (IP).
Improving Legal Case Outcomes with @RISK and PrecisionTree, Part ll
June 2, 2022
To lay the groundwork for swift settlements, many legal firms use PrecisionTree software to map out all possible routes a litigation path can take by building quantitative, probabilistic decision trees that calculate case outcomes along the way. This decision-making software can calculate for risks and rewards, forecast case budgets, identify key investigation areas, and create impartial, realistic models to cut down on time and costs.
Improving Legal Case Outcomes with @RISK and PrecisionTree, Part I
May 31, 2022
In litigation, you often get stuck in inefficient negotiations. Between 95-97% of patent lawsuits settle before trial, but not before amassing an average of more than $2 million in expenses, according James C. Yoon, partner at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati. If a long negotiation is disadvantageous for both parties, why does it take so long to reach settlement?
Risk Represents a Range of Possible Outcomes for Business Continuity and Disaster Response
May 23, 2022
Business continuity and emergency response managers know that recovering from a crisis requires proactive planning – regardless of whether you can see trouble approaching. Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic have taught us to expect the unexpected. So called “black swan” events, dubbed such because they are supposed to be rare, are not as unusual as the moniker suggests.
Dell Technologies Used Palisade’s Predictive Analytics Tools to Optimize Global Supply Chain
November 17, 2021
Long supply chains for technology companies in the United States combined with the need for timely delivery of products to customers has brought challenges to planning. The global pandemic added even more complexity to meet demand for timely delivery. Dell Technologies adopted a hybrid replenishment strategy using both ocean and air shipping to ensure inventory and service levels while reducing logistics costs. The supply chain strategy team evaluated the static initial inventory policy to identify an optimal solution that would minimize total fulfillment cost.